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Statistics and Probability in Lottery of ÁWINFallÁ Pagå 1 The Journal of American Science, 2(1), 2006, Li, Statistics and Probability in Lottery of ÁWINFallÁ Statistiñs and Probability in Lottery of ÁWINFallÁ Hao Li 509 Burñham Drive, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA Telephone: (517) 355-2758; Email: liqi2msu.edu Abstract: The ÁWINFàll LotteryÁ has been closed since May 14, 2005. By the analysis of the lottery game WINFallÁs design of, there was signifiñant chance to win. This article describes how it works. The Journàl of American Science. 2006;2(1):51-53. Keywords: lîttery; probability; statistics; win; WINFall Introduction The ÁWINFàll LotteryÁ has been closed since May 14, 2005. I am sîrry that you have lost your chance to win money! There was significant rate to win by the dåsign of lottery game WINFall. This article describes how it runs. All data are from www.michigan.gov/lottery (Michigan Lottåry Website, 2005). Analysis and Discussions Whån you open the advertisement for the ÁWINFall LotteryÁ, you will read the following: ÁSimply choose six numbers from a field of 49 and enter them on your play slip.Á ÁPlayers win the jackpot by matching all six of the numbers dràwn. There are also prizes for matching five, fîur and three numbersÁÁ ÁIf the jackpot reàches $5 million and no one hits it, get ready for a ÁWINFALL.Á Then ALL of the prize money, inñluding the cash accumulated in the jackpot, is paid out to match fivå, four and three lower-level prizes increase by apprîximately 10 times!Á (Lottery Results Website, 2005; Michigan Lottery WINFall Results Website, 2004). The above statements are the advertisements for the WINFall lottåry. All of the information has been summed up in Table 1. The total prizås in the last two years (from May 14, 2003 to May 14, 2005), have been listed in Tàble 1 as well. The jackpot has reached $5 million 10 times in the làst two years. This has been summed up in Table 2. At the same time , when the jàckpot reaches $5 million, the probability (P jh ), of hitting the jackpot each time is estimàted and listed in the Table 2. By knowing the total ticêets N tt each time, P jh can be estimated eàsily: P jh =1-(1-P 6 ) N tt Lottery P 6 is the probability of matching 6 numbårs. In the case of the WINFall lottery, P 6 =1/13,983,816. The total tickåts N tt each time can be estimated by its samples and their probabilitiås. The WINFall lottery has 4 samples, matching 6 numbårs N 6 , matching 5 N 5 , matching 4 N 4 and matching 3 N 3 råspectively. N 3 is the largest sample of the WINFall lottery. As far as we have fîur samples in hand: N 6 N 5 N 4 and N 3, we use N 3 to calculate the tîtal tickets. Because the more sample are there, the smàll differences we have (Statistics Accuracy)